AI CapEx investment sentiment
AI Scoring Model
SEC filings translated into investment actions for AI infrastructure exposure.
Transparent scoring engine
How AI filings become an investment action
Signal Engine starts every company at a neutral score of 50, extracts material AI CapEx signals from SEC filings, applies deterministic category weights, then translates the final score and trend into a plain-English action. The model is intentionally explainable: every point comes from a named signal, a fixed rule, and a visible source.
Ingest
Pull SEC filings from official EDGAR company filing feeds.
Classify
Map filing language into the fixed AI CapEx signal ontology.
Weight
Apply base category weight, materiality, and confidence adjustments.
Interpret
Convert final score, delta, and macro backdrop into an investor action.
Current AI Calculation
The exact model math for the current score: neutral base, weighted AI CapEx factor score, inactive external overlay, and final clamped score.Base score
50
Every company starts from neutral.
Company signal score
60
Unique company signal categories from filings are added once each.
External overlay
0
No external feed impacts are active in the current source set.
Final score
60
Stable: Selective add.
Formula
finalScore = clamp(0, 100, 50 + weightedAiCapexFactorImpacts + externalOverlay)
factorImpact = factorWeight / 2 × signal polarity × directness × confidence. Factor impact is capped so no factor can exceed its allocation.
AI Action Bands
The final score is translated into an investor action band so the output is easier to use than a raw number.0-40
Reduce / hedge
Negative signals dominate. Preserve capital first.
41-55
Do not add yet
Mixed or fragile readout. Wait for confirmation.
56-70
Hold / selective add
Constructive, but monitor execution pressure.
71-100
Increase exposure
Strong AI CapEx opportunity when trend confirms.
AI CapEx Factor Weights
The factor allocation behind the score: 30% hyperscaler CapEx revisions, 20% HBM/DRAM, 15% advanced packaging, 15% data center/power, 10% AI revenue monetization, and 10% financial stress/free cash flow.Hyperscaler CapEx revision trend
AI CapEx factor
Largest allocation because hyperscaler CapEx revisions are the primary demand signal for the AI infrastructure cycle.
HBM / DRAM pricing and allocation
AI CapEx factor
Captures memory pricing, HBM availability, and allocation pressure that can either confirm demand or expose bottlenecks.
CoWoS / advanced packaging
AI CapEx factor
Tracks advanced packaging constraints because accelerator supply depends on CoWoS and similar capacity.
Data center / power
AI CapEx factor
Reflects data center deployment, power availability, and physical buildout constraints.
AI revenue monetization
AI CapEx factor
Measures whether AI infrastructure spend is translating into revenue, backlog, or durable demand.
Financial stress / free cash flow
AI CapEx factor
Acts as the risk control for free cash flow, liquidity, refinancing, and margin pressure.
Refinement weights
Second-order model adjustments that keep category extraction realistic: directness, confidence scaling, and inactive external overlays.Materiality multiplier
0.75x-1.20x
Raises or lowers a base category weight based on how directly it affects AI CapEx economics.
Confidence multiplier
0.88x-1.00x
Lower-confidence extracted signals still count, but with a smaller impact.
AI external overlay
Inactive
Generic macro and availability-only sources are excluded until direct AI CapEx leading indicators are connected.
AI Source-to-Signal Mapping
Shows which incoming sources map into which model categories. This is the ontology layer between raw data and score impact.SEC EDGAR
8-K, 10-Q, 10-K, and Form 4 filings produce company-specific demand, capacity, execution, financial stress, management, and insider signals.
Deterministic Keyword Extraction
Rule-based extraction maps SEC filing language into fixed AI CapEx categories before deterministic scoring.
Excluded AI Source Rules
Documents which candidate sources are excluded because they do not provide direct, material AI CapEx early-warning evidence.Generic macro feeds
BLS CPI, CFTC COT, Federal Reserve Z.1, and Treasury TIC are excluded because they are broad context, not direct AI CapEx early-warning evidence.
Availability-only feeds
SEC Form ADV and FCA short-position pages are excluded because source reachability is not a meaningful investment signal.
Macro rules influence the backdrop, not the core company thesis. That is why the overlay is capped at ten points in either direction.
Live inputs feeding this score
The actual company signals and macro observations currently feeding the displayed score.Company signals
Capacity Expansion
New rack-scale production line planned for AI server and data-center demand.
Fallback category mapping · Directness 1.15x · Factor impact +20 · Confidence 0.97x
Margin Compression
AI component cost pressure may reduce near-term gross margin.
Fallback category mapping · Directness 1.10x · Factor impact -8 · Confidence 0.95x
Liquidity Stress
Liquidity or cash pressure appears in the filing.
Fallback category mapping · Directness 1.10x · Factor impact -5 · Confidence 0.95x
Debt Refinancing Risk
Debt maturity or refinancing risk is present.
Fallback category mapping · Directness 1.05x · Factor impact -4 · Confidence 0.93x
Executive Departure
Executive leadership departure disclosed in the filing.
Fallback category mapping · Directness 0.70x · Factor impact -3 · Confidence 0.94x
Insider Sale
Insider sale activity may weaken near-term sentiment.
Fallback category mapping · Directness 0.55x · Factor impact -2 · Confidence 0.93x
Insider Purchase
Director reported open-market share purchases during AI infrastructure expansion.
Fallback category mapping · Directness 0.55x · Factor impact +2 · Confidence 0.94x
Executive Appointment
Executive leadership appointment disclosed in the filing.
Fallback category mapping · Directness 0.60x · Factor impact +1 · Confidence 0.94x
AI external observations
None active. Direct company filings are the only evidence source currently used for scoring.